Life Coach in Paradise Valley, AZ

If 2022 was the year of resurgent inflation, 2023 could be the year of recession — or at least a bumpy landing.

The economy still hasn’t rolled over, and might not, but plenty of warning signs are flashing.

Thus, it's a good idea to prepare. Here are some suggestions for doing that in case an economic downturn arrives:

1. Keep debts under control

This is wise advice at all times, but borrowing can create greater risks during recessions if you lose a job, suffer a big investment loss or face other economic pressures.

There are a couple of approaches to paying down debt. One stresses paying off small balances first to build momentum — a feeling that you’re making progress. Another focuses on first whittling away at those obligations carrying the highest interest rates.

“Minimizing your interest costs means paying off the debts from highest interest rate to lowest, but you have to do what works for you," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "If you’re more likely to stick with the program by paying off a few smaller balances first to build some momentum, then do that."

He also suggests looking for incentives such as 0% balance-transfer offers, some of which last up to 21 months, if you can't pay off your credit cards in full each month.

2. Review your tolerance for losses

Investments typically decline during recessions, at least during the early phases. With a whiff of recession in the air, many assets faltered last year, from home prices to stock and bond values to cryptocurrencies.

The stock market, as represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, slumped around 19% last year. A second straight annual decline of that magnitude would be unusual. Nor do stocks and bonds usually tumble in unison, as happened in 2022.

Rather, the stock market tends to recover from drops, even amid recessions. Following 18 prior down years dating to 1950, the S&P 500 index bounced back in 15 of the following years, according to research by LPL Financial. "Looking at this another way, after losing 20% or more at any point in time, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 17.6% over the subsequent 12 months," LPL Financial said.

The stock market finished 2020 with a loss of 19% but was down 25% at the nadir.

At any rate, a new year is a good time to rebalance or shift some money from relatively stable holdings to those that got beaten down. The idea here is to make gradual adjustments. Your portfolio should reflect your ability to tolerate or handle risk, but you want to avoid making drastic changes at what could be near cyclical low points.

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3. Build up your liquidity

Recessions can strain finances, and that’s why it’s critical to have enough money in savings to meet unexpected expenses. The usual advice of having three to six months of emergency savings on hand rises to six to nine months for recessionary periods.

“Having less debt and more savings will better enable you to weather whatever economic environment may lie ahead," McBride said.

Candy Valentino, a Paradise Valley entrepreneur and author of the personal-finance book "Wealth Habits," suggests going through your credit card and other account statements once a month with the aim of cutting expenses by 10%. Watch for subscriptions or memberships that you signed up for but no longer use, frivolous phone apps that cost a few dollars, excessive restaurant meals and other entertainment costs.

"Go line by line and look at your credit- and debit-card bills," she said. "It's amazing how many charges can sneak up on you."

It’s also a good time to check your credit reports for errors and to review the various loans in your name, including credit card accounts you might have forgotten about. A solid credit history will translate into higher credit scores and the ability to get loans on good terms, should the need arise.

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4. Re-evaluate your job prospects

Unemployment usually rises during recessions, and this is the factor that typically causes the most misery. So far, though, that isn’t happening, much to the consternation of Federal Reserve leaders who want to flatten inflation in part by pushing up the jobless rate. But if a recession arrives, unemployment likely will increase.

Along with possibly searching for a new job, it might be time to update your resume and improve employment skills. It also could help to add a second or gig job. In addition to extra income, a side job can open up tax-saving opportunities such as deductions for business meals, transportation, a computer, supplies or a home office, said Valentino.

Despite a persistently low unemployment rate and ample openings, employees and job seekers shouldn't get overconfident. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, notes that the quality of job openings has declined, with layoffs rising in higher-paying industries including technology, finance and manufacturing while hiring continues in lower-paying fields such as leisure and hospitality.

He sees the nation's jobless rate rising to 4.5% by mid-2023, from 3.5% currently.

5. Delay retirement if you can

If you’re nearing retirement age, it might pay to hold out for another year or two. Granted, it seems like everyone else is quitting or retiring, but staying employed a while longer can help take some strain off of your retirement portfolio, especially during a recession.

“A few additional years in the labor force can make a big difference,” noted the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College in a report that cited three key benefits. The first: Contributing more money into a 401(k) or similar retirement plan. The second: Further delaying Social Security for people between the ages of 62 and 70, with a corresponding bump up in eventual benefits. The third: Reducing the number of years in retirement that your portfolio will need to last.

The last point is worth emphasizing during recessionary periods when financial markets often are in disarray.

One Vanguard Group study looked at the results for two investors with hypothetical $500,000 portfolios at the start of the severe, recession-induced 1973-1974 bear market. Both investors withdrew $25,000 a year and had similar portfolios split 50-50 between stocks and bonds. But one investor began withdrawals in 1973, at the start of a 21-month stretch when the market slumped 46%. The other began one year later in 1974. The delay was critical, as the first investor ran out of money after 23 years while the second still had some assets left after 35 years.

This is known as sequence-of-return risk, and it reflects the danger of turning temporary paper losses into permanent setbacks from which it can take many years to recover. Recessions are a time when that danger rises.

I moved to Phoenix more than a decade ago, and I still can't get enough of the city's wealth of outdoor activities. Many of my favorite things to do are centered around exploring the Sonoran desert, which spans 100,000 square miles from Phoenix to Northern Mexico, and is home to hundreds of species of native wildlife.

Besides the foothills and dozens of hiking trails, I've also discovered ghost towns, architectural landmarks, and unique natural museums, all within easy driving distance of downtown.

I love playing tour guide for friends and family, and often take them to places around the valley that I visit regularly on my own. Here's my list of 8 can't-miss places to see and things to do in and around Phoenix, from my favorite place to catch a desert sunset to an open-air museum that was the home of Frank Lloyd Wright.

Learn about Sonoran desert plants at the Desert Botanical Garden.

The Desert Botanical Garden is one of my favorite places in the entire state. I like coming here to see interesting plants and enjoy the feeling of being immersed in the desert. It's a 140-acre property with hundreds of native plants, cacti, and butterfly gardens.

It's laid out beautifully, in my opinion, with paved pathways and trails that are easy to navigate. Some of my favorites to wander are the Sonoran Desert Nature Loop Trail, which has great views of the mountains, and the Wildflower Loop Trail, where I often see bees around the native wildflowers.

There are daily tours included in the cost of admission, which I think is a great option for first-time visitors who want to learn about desert wildlife from an expert guide. I also like visiting the garden for its special events, which include sunset dinners, plant sales, and rotating art exhibits. These vary seasonally, so I recommend checking the calendar ahead of your visit to see what's planned.

Located in Paradise Valley just north of Phoenix, Cosanti Originals is an open-air art gallery built by architect Paolo Soleri, who studied under Frank Lloyd Wright.

In the 1950s, Soleri built the eco-architectural structures on his property from concrete and soil, mostly by hand. He also created the Cosanti bell, a hand-poured bronze wind bell.

The buildings on the property always have me in awe, and I enjoy listening to the sounds of numerous Cosanti bells chiming in the wind. I recommend taking one of the daily guided tours to learn more about the history of Cosanti. The bells are also available for purchase, which I think makes for a nice keepsake.

One of the first places I visited in Phoenix after moving here was Papago Park, and that visit played a big role in how quickly I fell in love with the city.

This free park is family-friendly and has a handful of easy, flat hiking options through the desert. There are also trails along some creeks. I love coming here for a hike with friends, and am always in awe of the desert's unique, rust-colored rock formations.

My favorite part of Papago Park is the Hole in the Rock, which is a hiking destination that's exactly what it sounds like. It's a quick and easy five-minute hike up to the hole, and I recommend going at sunrise or sunset for incredible views.

Explore the grounds of Taliesin West, the former homestead of architect Frank Lloyd Wright.

Taliesin West is the former western homestead of architect Frank Lloyd Wright. Situated in north Scottsdale, overlooking the McDowell Mountains, the property was built in 1937 and is now a preserved, walkable museum.

Dubbed Wright's "desert laboratory," Taliesin West is a UNESCO World Heritage site as well as a National Historic Landmark.

There are eight large buildings on the property, the majority of which you can check out in person on a guided tour. Coming here puts me in an exploratory mood, and I think all of the architecture is intriguing. The museum also hosts temporary programs and rotating exhibitions about Wright's life and art style, as well as events like community shows, movie viewings, and sunset happy hours.

The carefully curated gift shop is also not to be missed, in my opinion, for a Phoenix Souvenir. It sells local artwork, Frank Lloyd Wright prints and products, and coffee table books. I recommend reserving a tour at least a week in advance, because in my experience by the day of, it's often sold out.

Visit Goldfield Ghost Town for a taste of Arizona's Old West.

One of my favorite places to take friends and family visiting Phoenix is Goldfield Ghost Town.

In the Old West era, it was a thriving town and home to miners from the nearby Mammoth Gold Mine. It's located near the Superstition Mountains in Apache Junction, and about a 45-minute drive from Phoenix proper.

Now, it's a tourist attraction with cowboy shootout reenactments, saloons, and old-timey photo booths. I think it's fun to walk around the main street, tour the former Old West brothel, and spend some time in the shops, which sell everything from homemade soaps to salsas.

I also recommend dropping by the nearby Elvis Chapel on your way in or out, which was used in the old Elvis Presley western, "Charro!," and is a fun photo opportunity, in my opinion.

See Indigenous art at the Heard Museum.

The Heard Museum, founded in 1929, is dedicated entirely to showcasing and advancing Indigenous and Native art from across the country. I think this museum does an exceptional job of displaying both traditional art and contemporary art from living artists.

I also find the museum interesting since it showcases art of all mediums — historical artifacts, sculptures, textiles, and more. Many exhibits include plaques with first-person stories or historical information that allows visitors to better understand Indigenous art.

Along with permanent galleries, the museum also has rotating temporary exhibits, and events like music concerts and open-air markets.

Hike and see the valley from the top of Camelback Mountain.

When I first moved to Phoenix, I fell in love with the region's natural beauty. Even today, I still feel lucky to see miles of foothills, cacti, and sunsets just by looking outside my window.

One of my favorite ways to get these views, plus a good workout, is to hike Camelback Mountain. It's a peak in the center of the valley near Scottsdale at 2,700 feet tall, which means there's a view of the city and sweeping desert below.

I find the hike to be strenuous, since it has a steep incline most of the way up. It's 2.4 miles long, and I recommend allowing two to three hours or longer, depending on how often you stop to take in the views or catch your breath. It's also best done between October and May since it's very hot to hike it in the summer. Regardless of which season you go, I'd advise wearing comfortable shoes and carrying sun protection and water.

I have fun visiting the Musical Instrument Museum both with out-of-towners and by myself.

It's in north Phoenix just beyond Paradise Valley, and exhibits a wide range of historic and modern musical instruments. The museum's website says it has about 8,000 instruments on display.

My two favorite exhibits are the piano room, where you can see a deconstructed Steinway, and the experience gallery, where you can play obscure instruments like the theremin and communal drums. I also recommend checking out the events and concerts schedule to see upcoming live music performances.

The Pima Community College baseball team (4-0) played another non-conference doubleheader against Paradise Valley Community College as Saturday’s games were held at the West Campus Aztec Baseball Field.

The Aztecs won both games, but the Pumas made it interesting. Sophomore Hunter Faildo finished the day 4 for 7 with three RBIs and three runs scored. The Aztecs got quality starts from freshman Alessandro Castro (Pusch Ridge Christian HS) and sophomore Anthony Imhoff (Queen Creek HS).

• Game 1: Pima CC Aztecs 7, Paradise Valley CC Pumas 6: The Aztecs went on a tear in the 1st inning scoring seven runs. The Pumas rallied scoring one run in the 6th and five in the 7th inning, but the Aztecs got the final out to pick up the win.

The Aztecs got two straight RBI hits from sophomore Braedon Mondeau (Cienega HS) and Faildo, who later scored on a passed ball to make it 3-0. Freshman Antonio Avila drew a bases loaded walk to plate freshman Benji Cazares (Tucson Magnet HS). Sophomores Joey Adge, Luis Garcia (Salpointe Catholic HS) and Gage Mestas all had RBIs in the inning.

Mestas and Faildo each finished 2 for 3 with an RBI and a run scored. Mondeau was 1 for 3 with an RBI and a run scored.

Castro picked up the win (1-0) as he pitched five innings giving up three hits with one strikeout on 66 pitches. Freshman Ruben Castro (Tucson Magnet HS) picked up his first save as he threw two-thirds of an inning, giving up two runs (two earned) on one hit with one walk.

PVCC 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 6 2PCC 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 0

W – A. Castro (1-0). SV – R. Castro (1). 2B: Mondeau

• Game 2: Pima CC Aztecs 9, Paradise Valley CC Pumas 7: The Aztecs took the lead in the early innings again, but the Pumas’ bats kept things close in the later innings.

Cazares hit an RBI single with one out and freshman David Shackelford followed with a 2-run RBI single to make it 3-0. Cazares later scored to make it 4-0 on a fielder’s choice play

The Aztecs tacked on another four runs in the 2nd inning as Faildo hit a 2-run RBI double and scored on Cazares’ RBI double to make it 7-0. Sophomore Rocco Gump (Seton Catholic HS) capped off the inning after he drove in Cazares with an RBI single to make it 8-0.

The Pumas scored six runs in the 6th inning and one run in the 9th but the Aztecs closed it out to secure the sweep.

The middle of the order of Stucky, Faildo, Cazares and Shackelford combined to go 9 for 17 (.529) with six RBIs and five runs scored. Faildo went 2 for 4 with two RBIs and two runs scored while Cazares was 3 for 4 with two RBIs, two runs scored and two doubles. Shackelford finished 2 for 5 with two RBIs.

Imhoff threw four shutout innings as he picked up the win (1-0) with two strikeouts and two walks. Freshman J.T. Drake nabbed his second save of the season after throwing three innings, giving up one run (one earned) on two hits with three strikeouts.

PVCC 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 1 7 6 1PCC 4 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 x 9 13 1

W – Imhoff (1-0). SV – Drake (2). 2B: Cazares 2, Faildo. 3B: Stucky. SB: Avila, Mestas, Gump.

The Aztecs will head to Mesa, AZ for the Zinger Classic held at Sloan Park on Friday and Saturday with a possible game on Sunday. They will play Salt Lake Community College on Friday at 10:00 a.m. and the College of Southern Nevada at 2 p.m.

If high egg prices brought you down, there's a homegrown solution: Get your own chickens.

Why it matters: Inflation and an avian flu outbreak have more than doubled egg prices across the country, and Arizona has been no exception.

The big picture: Most cities in Maricopa County allow residents to keep chickens in their backyards.

Yes, but: Just because you're allowed to keep chickens doesn't mean there are no restrictions. Check with your city to find out where in town you can keep them and how many you're allowed to have.

Zoom in: We checked out poultry-related regulations in several of the Valley's largest cities:

Phoenix: Chickens must be at least 80 feet from a residence, unless you have the permission of anyone whose home is closer than that, and half-acre lots or less are limited to 20 birds.

Glendale: Parts of the city that are zoned rural, agricultural or suburban permit chickens, with varying limitations.

Mesa: Up to 10 chickens are allowed on lots of less than a half-acre, and roosters are permitted only if they don't cause a noise disturbance.

Chandler: As of Jan. 5, residents can keep up to five chickens at single-family homes, though no roosters. Coops must be at least five feet from the home.

Reality check: Check the regulations in your city before starting your own backyard chicken coop.

From musical performances to private parties and fundraisers, several star-studded events are scheduled to take place around the Valley come Super Bowl weekend.

Super Bowl LVII will take place in Glendale at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 12.

With the big game comes unique parties and events taking place in north Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley.

The weekend starts with “Big Game Fiesta” on High Street in north Phoenix — a three-day concert series will take place Thursday, Feb. 9-Saturday, Feb. 11.

The lineup features three recording artists live and in full concert:

The outdoor retail and entertainment district, High Street, will transform into a one-of-a-kind, under-the-stars nightclub. The event will boast a 200-foot long bar, a large dance floor, and smart lighting to entertain thousands each evening.

The event has general admission tickets and multiple VIP experiences including elevated VIP seating and a limited number of private skyboxes. This event is for 21+ only. All attendees must have a valid ID for entry.

Tickets go on sale Wednesday, Jan. 25 at BigGameFiesta.com and by calling 602-244-8444. Ticket prices start at $130 for general admission and $280 for VIP. All tickets include admission and event parking. Three-day GA passes are also available for only $250.

Also on Friday, h.wood Homecoming is hosting an invite-only party from 9 p.m. to 2 a.m. at Scottsdale Hanger One, where musical artist Drake will perform.

Scottsdale Hanger One, a luxury private jet complex, will be transformed into a two-story playground that showcases artists, brands and experiences. The event is invite-only and will feature a star-studded guest list, according to a press release.

On Saturday, Feb. 11, at The Clayton House in Scottsdale, GQ will host an inaugural GQ Sports Style Hall of Fame event to honor the magazine’s cover stars Deion Sanders, Allen Iverson and Derek Jeter. The three athletes have been named the Hall of Fame’s first inductees.

To commemorate the moment, GQ is offering readers and sports fans alike a chance to be part of the star-studded induction ceremony on the eve of Super Bowl 2023. The event will kick off with a series of live, on-stage conversations with Sanders, Iverson, and Jeter, in which each athlete will discuss their storied career and personal style, followed by an exclusive post-event cocktail reception with a premium bar, live DJ, and networking with industry leaders and GQ editors.

Tickets are available on GQ.com. Presale prices are $300 for general admission, and $1,250 for VIP packages, which include pre-show meet-and-greets with Will Welch and GQ editors, access to VIP lounge, premium seating section for the duration of the induction ceremony, exclusive VIP gift bags, a complimentary GQ Box, and more.

Also on Feb. 11, J.J. Watt will co-host Big Game Big Give, a fundraising event by the Giving Back Fund. The event is to be held at a private residence in Paradise Valley.

Big Game Big Give is expected to feature a star-studded party where NBA Hall of Famer Dikembe Mutombo will be honored and singer-songwriter Gavin DeGraw will give a special performance.

“I am honored that The Giving Back Fund has chosen the Justin J. Watt Foundation as one of the beneficiaries for this great event,” said J.J. Watt in a prepared statement. “While I am very much looking forward to the evening, I’m even more excited about the way we’re going to utilize these funds to help kids in under-funded areas all across the country.”

A portion of proceeds raised at the event will benefit the Justin J. Watt Foundation, whose mission is to provide after-school opportunities for middle-school aged children in the community to become involved in athletics, so that they may learn the character traits of accountability, teamwork, leadership, work ethic, and perseverance, while in a safe and supervised environment with their peers.

Former Phoenix Suns and LA Lakers player Cedric Ceballos will serve as the event emcee and DJ the party.

“I’m excited to go back to Arizona for the Big Game Big Give event to perform,” said DeGraw. “The Giving Back Fund and Vincere Foundation support two things close to my heart, cancer research and helping firefighters. This is a good cause. Let’s raise some money!”

The Vincere Foundation will be honored for its life saving work in the prevention, early detection, and treatment of cancer in Firefighters and First Responders. Arizona’s firefighters will also be recognized at the event, and to commemorate those firefighters, a special Fire and Elements theme will be incorporated into the evening.

Mutombo will receive The Giving Back Fund’s Award for Extraordinary Philanthropic Achievement, which from that night forward will be renamed in his honor and will be presented by Ray Lewis. Mutombo is currently undergoing treatment for a brain tumor. Shaquille O’Neal has been invited to accept the award on his behalf, a press release stated.

For more information about the event visit www.givingback.org/bgbg2023. To inquire about tickets please contact info@10foldentertainment.com.

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